A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
